UNTIMELY CELEBRATION OF BOKO HARAM DEFEAT.

Coming so close to the tail end of the deadline set for the decimation of Boko Haram, the recent onslaught by the blood-thirsty group that claimed estimated 90 lives in Borno and Adamawa states must indeed be very troubling. After what appeared to be a period of relative lull, the fragile peace in Nigeria’s troubled North-East region was brutally shattered as the citizens were basking in the euphoria of the recent festive season.

This, more than anything else, is a clear indication that the prolific terror organisation is still very active and has the capacity to inflict blows with deadly consequences, despite the best containment efforts of the Nigerian military. It is also a grave disservice to the gallantry of the soldiers who have put in a lot in recent times to ensure that the group does not enjoy the free rein of sadistic attacks associated with it in the recent past.

On assumption of office on May 29, 2015, President Muhammadu Buhari had ordered the relocation of the military’s operational headquarters to Maiduguri, the capital of Borno State and the epicentre of the ongoing war against terror, backing that directive up with a deadline of December 31, 2015 set for the defeat of the jihadists.

But Boko Haram, adjudged to be the most deadly terror group in the world at the moment, was able to pull off its recent onslaughts in two of the three states most affected by its activities through the use of female teenage suicide bombers. No fewer than 14 of them were unleashed on Maiduguri, out of which seven were gunned down, according to Yushau Abubakar, a Major General, who is also the Theatre Commander of the military anti-insurgency operations in the North-East of the country.

Bitter lessons exist to be learnt from what just happened. One of them is that wars are won or ended not by mere proclamation of victory, but by cessation of hostilities, either by mutually negotiated agreements or by sheer force of superior power by a party to the conflict. This is particularly important, given the recent posturing of the Federal Government, which is claiming that Boko Haram has been “technically defeated,” based principally on the fact that it had lost the territory hitherto under its control.

It is true that the Nigerian military, with better funding, better motivation and cooperation with forces from neighbouring countries, have had the upper hand in recent battles with Boko Haram. It is also incontrovertible that, from a period where it exercised authority over about 30 local governments areas – during which time it even declared a “caliphate” – the operational base of Boko Haram has now shrunk to “one or two local governments,” according to Lai Muhammed, the Information Minister. “We have been vindicated because Boko Haram has been decapitated compared to the past records,” he was quoted as saying.

Yet, this should not be enough to lull the combatants into complacency or feel that the war has been won. From experience, the war against terror is usually asymmetrical and can last far longer than ever thought. Like a snake killed, but with the head left intact, it can strike back with untold fatalities. Rather than see it as a sign of victory, the current state of affairs will only herald a new and perhaps more delicate phase in what is certain to remain a hard-fought and long-drawn-out war.

Naturally, after battles come mop-up operations. This is a phase reached now, and it should be intelligence-led. As admitted by the minister, “…the terrorists will continue to attack such targets as markets, motor parks, entertainment centres and houses of worship.” But this is exactly what this phase of the war should strive to avert. In Afghanistan, for instance, where the United States-led Coalition Forces succeeded in ousting the Taliban from power, the war is far from over, almost 15 years after. If anything, it has assumed a very dangerous dimension with the terror group even threatening to stage a return. A news report last month quoting a Pakistani journalist said a Taliban return to power in Afghanistan was “no longer improbable.” Such is the unyielding nature of terrorism.

Also, after the July 7, 2005 London bombings, considered the worst terror attacks in the history of the United Kingdom after the Lockerbie bombing of 1988, the intelligence level has been scaled up and nothing of such has occurred in that country again. It is however not that attempts are not being made; it is just that the security agents have managed to remain a step ahead of the terrorists, as confirmed in a December 23, 2015 statement to the House of Commons by the Prime Minister, David Cameron. He said that seven attempts had been foiled in the past one year.

Last week, a couple, Mohammed Rehman (25) and Sana Ahmed Khan (24), was jailed for 27 and 25 years respectively for plotting a terror attack in London. Through intelligence gathering, it was discovered that they had been buying and storing chemicals for the making of bombs. But before their masochistic assignment could be carried out on the 10th anniversary of the July 7 bombings, they were picked up, tried and jailed.

Despite the efficiency of the security forces, the government is planning to step up further security, with Cameron promising, “We will invest more than £178 billion in buying and maintaining equipment over the next decade.” Additionally, Cameron promised to increase Britain’s expeditionary force from 30,000 in 2010 to 50,000 by 2025. That is a system that is not resting on its laurels.

Similarly, in the US, major terror attacks have been averted since the September 11, 2001 attacks. Prevented from pulling off attacks of that magnitude, there has been a resort to lone wolf attacks. Even then, the frequency of such attacks remains at the barest minimum.

This is what Nigeria should be doing by now. As the recent incidents in Borno and Adamawa states have shown, attacks by suicide bombers, if not checked, could produce far higher casualties than when the military engage the group in combat. Until the country stops losing her citizens in droves, any attempt to claim victory over Boko Haram would amount to precipitate celebration.

Punch