The national conference started last Monday and was eventful on its first day. However, there are 10 issues that may mar the conference.
1. Indigeneship/citizenship
The argument about whether or not the clauses that promote indigeneship in the 1999 Constitution should be expunged will likely be contentious at the conference.
Some have argued that there is the need to replace indigeneship with citizenship to engender unity and give Nigerians a sense of belonging.
Proponents of this idea believe making the adjustment will solve the indigene/settler crisis in Benue, Nasarawa and Plateau states.
2. State creation
Last year, when the National Assembly made attempts to amend the constitution, it received about 57 requests for the creation of states. Virtually all the groups that agitated for the creation of the states are represented at the conference; therefore, there is the possibility that all of them, and may be more, will push for the creation of the other proposed states. This will likely become chaotic.
3. Rotational presidency
Rotational presidency has been a recurring issue at virtually all national conferences. Some believe the six geopolitical zones should be given the opportunity to produce the President, while others believe the Presidency should swing between the North and the South. Yet some believe the Presidency should be won by merit. Possible contenders are delegates from the North and the South-East. The South-East’s claim on the Presidency is based on the fact that it has not ‘tasted’ the Presidency since 1999. The Vice-Chairman of Northern Senators Forum, Sen. Smart Adeyemi, said the forum would work to ensure that the proposal to legalise rotational presidency does not see the light of day because it was ‘anti-North.’
4. Regional autonomy
Regional autonomy, which is a major component of federalism, has been the main demand of the South-West and the South-South. This will ensure that each region of the country controls its resources, funds itself and then contributes to the running of a much weaker Federal Government. Considering previous positions held by the North, its delegates are likely to oppose it.
5. Resource control, revenue allocation formula
The 2005 constitutional conference was stalled when the South-South delegates staged a walkout, insisting on a minimum of 50 per cent derivation. They have always sought to control the petroleum resources in the Niger Delta but this has been opposed most times by the North.
The issue of who controls the oil and gas resources will, no doubt, be contentious.
6. Religion
Following what happened on the first day, the religious beliefs of the delegates may get in the way of a successful conclusion of the national conference.
Pastor Tunde Bakare had objected to the Chairman of the conference, Justice Idris Kutigi (retd), starting his speeches with an Islamic citation, saying it could create a situation where he would also start by saying, “Praise the Lord somebody,” and thereby turn the conference to a church service.
This led to exchange of words between Christian and Muslim leaders. Also, with the protest by Muslim leaders that the conference is dominated by Christians, there is the possibility of the conference splitting on religious grounds.
7. North’s walkout
The leaders of the North have already warned that they may stage a walkout if the agenda of the conference does not benefit the North. Going by the positions of delegates from virtually all other parts of the country, the North is likely to come under heat during the conference. Therefore, northern delegates may pull out midway into the conference.
8. Campaign for Jonathan
Going by the scepticism that greeted President Goodluck Jonathan’s announcement of the plan to hold the national conference, there is no doubt that even the most subtle attempt to promote a second term agenda for Jonathan will tear the conference apart.
9. New constitution
Although, many of the delegates agree there is the need to ratify the resolutions of the conference through a referendum, they are still far from reaching a consensus on the idea of writing a new constitution. Some believe the 1999 constitution only needs to be amended, while others want a brand new constitution. This may lead to a conflict, if 75 per cent majority is not reached when the decision will be put up for voting.
10. State police
The argument about whether or not states should be allowed to create their own police will also be contentious. Opponents of the idea say Nigeria is not ripe for it and that state governors will use state police against their political foes.
Speaking on the contentious issues, constitutional lawyer, Prof. Itse Sagay, SAN, said that northern delegates would mostly break up the conference because they would not agree to the establishment of fiscal federalism and resource control.
He said, “Resource control and revenue sharing is still the issue. From what I can see, the northern elite have no intention of being productive in their area. They are looking at Niger Delta oil as the only source of their existence. All they are interested in is claiming the proceeds of the oil in the Niger Delta.
“Their strategy is to ensure that oil proceeds are transferred to the Federal Government and then the North would organise itself to be in charge of the Federal Government perpetually; that way it would control Niger Delta oil. That is the ambition and strategy of the northern elite. It would stall the conference. The conference would break up on this and if they are not careful, it would have more devastating consequences.”
Also, the Head of the Department of Political Science and International Relations, University of Lagos, Prof. Solomon Akinboye, said, “Contentious issues would include issues like resource control. The South-South is asking for 50 per cent derivation fund. I don’t think everybody will agree with them. The issue of state police must be addressed. Some of us believe that state police should be created, but some believe we are not mature for it. That will also be contentious.”
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